PO_MAX_CONF

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The maximum acceptable model confidence, as a fraction between 0 and 1. Signals above this cap are rejected — counter-intuitively, because in this system extremely confident predictions have historically come from overfit batch models, not real edge.

What it does

build_config() parses it with float(env("PO_MAX_CONF", "0.85")) — a non-numeric value raises ValueError and crashes at startup.

In _trade_loop() (src/bot.py), immediately after the minimum-confidence gate:

if hasattr(self.cfg, 'max_confidence') and confidence > self.cfg.max_confidence:
    ...  # log "⏸ Overconfident: 91.0% (cap=85.0%) — likely overfit noise"
    self._signal_history.clear()
    continue

The check is strict > — a confidence exactly equal to the cap passes. Like the minimum gate, rejection clears the signal-confirmation history, restarting any confirmation streak. The hasattr guard exists for backward compatibility with older pickled/constructed configs; with the current BotConfig the field always exists.

The field was added in v6 (src/config.py comment: “reject overconfident (overfit) signals”). Together with PO_MIN_CONF it defines the acceptance band logged at startup: Confidence: 63%–85%.

Valid values

A fraction in (0, 1], strictly greater than PO_MIN_CONF. Set it to 1.0 to effectively disable the overconfidence filter. Setting it at or below PO_MIN_CONF leaves no passable band, so the bot never trades.

Examples

export PO_MAX_CONF=0.85

$env:PO_MAX_CONF = '0.85'

# .env
PO_MAX_CONF=0.85

Interactions

• PO_MIN_CONF is the lower edge of the band.
• The gate targets the batch models (GBM/RF) in the ensemble, which are periodically retrained on a sliding window in _result_checker(); the cap protects against their overfit spikes between retrains.
• Signals inside the band still face PO_REQUIRE_ALIGNMENT and the remaining gates.

See also

• Ensemble concept
• Signal gates concept
• All environment variables

💬 Unsure how this interacts with the rest of the configuration? Ask in the Chipa Discord — or prototype strategies no-code with ChipaEditor.